February has the reputation of recording the second-worst average monthly S&P 500 price change since WWII. Only September can boast a less-admirable track record. Yet should the S&P post a positive return, 2025 will join a select group of years, highlights Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
September has not only recorded the deepest average decline since WWII, but it is also the only month in which the “500” fell more frequently than it rose. As for February, its lackluster returns could be blamed on investors looking to take some profits after enjoying above-average gains from October through January.
Since 1990, there have been 15 times in which the S&P 500 fell in price in February. During those years, the accompanying table shows how the S&P 500, its sectors, and sub-industries performed, on average, during those down periods.
On average, all styles, sizes, and sectors, as well as 95% of the 77 sub-industries participating in at least ten observations, also recorded declines in February. Only the S&P 500 casinos and gaming, consumer electronics, gold, and semiconductor materials and equipment groups recorded average gains.
Still, if markets come back, 2025 could join a select group of years (29 out of 79 years since 1945) when the S&P 500 rose in price in both January and February. In those years, the S&P 500 gained in price in all but one year (it fell 0.002% in 2011) and posted a full-year gain averaging 20.3%.
Its 10-month return was also impressive, posting an average gain of 12.7% and rising in price in 93% of all years (declining 13.1% in 1987 and 5.2% in 2011).
