The Fed's Balance Sheet & the 2020 Election

Released on Friday, February 28, 2020ECONOMICS

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Jack Ablin
Cresset Capital, CIO

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Markets are rallying across the board on tamer-than-expected inflation data. Equities, Treasuries, gold, silver, and crude oil are all higher. The dollar is down.

Global markets are reacting to ongoing tariff disputes, persistent inflation, and shifting energy policies. These forces are driving volatility and creating unique trading opportunities. Join us for an in-depth look at how these economic dynamics are influencing short-term stock market movements and how savvy traders can capitalize on these trends using Leveraged & Inverse ETFs.

Cannabis revenues have never been higher, and valuation have never been lower. Join Todd Sullivan, President of Cannapreneur Partners, to find out why pension funds and even Berkshire Hathaway now have some new exposure to cannabis

Nearly five years ago, the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped the world in ways few could have imagined. Lockdowns, economic turmoil, and unprecedented government interventions sent shockwaves through financial markets, forcing investors and policymakers to navigate one of the most volatile economic periods in modern history.
Stocks have been sliding for days amid trade war fears, and yesterday was no exception. They’re flat in the early going today along with Treasuries and gold. The dollar is slipping, while Bitcoin is bouncing after a rough stretch of trading.
The S&P 500 just registered its second down week in a row after hitting an all-time high as recently as February 19. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields dropped five weeks in a row, which is even more telling, notes Ivan Martchev, investment strategist at Navellier & Associates.
Last Friday, I sat down with Freddy Gray at The Spectator’s office in Westminster to record an episode of the Americano podcast. We talked about the collapse of the EV market, Britain’s disastrous energy policies, energy humanism, and the tectonic political changes in the US and Europe on climate policy. These shifts clearly impact companies like BP Plc (BP), explains Robert Bryce, editor of Robert Bryce on Substack.
A little over a month ago as Donald Trump was about to take office as President, the 10-Year Treasury Note yield hit 4.80%. Almost every economist and strategist was writing and putting out that the 10-year would hit 5% due to inflation from tariffs. I disagreed – and I still do, writes Ryan Edwards, author at The Investing Authority.
As we know, Chinese stocks have seen a massive run of epic proportions over the past 30-40 days. The Hang Seng Index has soared almost 3,000 points in a non-stop run that I’ve seen only two-three times over the last four years. One of my most familiar names within my China coverage is Trip.com Group Ltd. (TCOM), writes Larry Cheung, founder of Letters from Larry.
It is kind of crazy that we’ve had one of the coldest weeks ever and yet we saw a big build in distillate inventories. Did everyone turn their heat off? Meanwhile, crude oil sold off earlier this week partly because of President Trump’s comments on the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, advises Phil Flynn, senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group.
The last two calendar years have been outstanding for US equities. But we have seen some signs of reversal in sentiment around US market outperformance relative to other regions. The iShares Core S&P 500 (IVV) has recently trailed non-US ETFs like the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) and iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA), advises Aniket Ullal, VP, ETF Data & Analytics at CFRA Research.
Consumer confidence continues to come off its election-fueled sugar high from November, with the most recent reading hitting its lowest level since June. Confidence has dipped for a third straight month, while also missing economists’ expectations in each instance, highlights Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro.
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