(03/17/25) Chart of the Day 3/17/25: Looking for an SPY Low? Then Look for

03/17/2025 12:02 am EST•2 min read •Tickers: SPY

Editor-in-Chief

Have we seen THE LOW for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) yet? Was it last Thursday? I don’t know. No one does. But a review of the last two major market bottoms can shed some light on what one MIGHT look like this time.

Remember what I wrote on Friday. Investor sentiment is as bad (or worse) as it was around the Covid-19 low in 2020 and the final washout in October 2022. So, let’s look at those two bottoms and see what transpired.

I’ll start with my first MoneyShow Chart of the Day – the action in March-April 2020. You can see the relentless, high-volume selling in the first three weeks of March. SPY traded along the lower Bollinger Band and RSI confirmed weakness for days on end.

SPY (3/1/20 - 4/30/20)
chart

Data by YCharts

But then on 3/19 and 3/22, we had high-volume selling, a minor RSI divergence, and a quasi-abandoned baby candlestick pattern show up. That was followed by a lighter-volume pullback a few days later, which got bought. After that, we were off to the races.

Now, here’s my second MoneyShow Chart of the Day – the action in September-October 2022. You can see yet another relentless move throughout September – with high-volume liquidation, SPY trading along the lower Bollinger Band, and RSI confirming the weakness.

SPY (9/1/22 - 10/31/22)
chart

Data by YCharts

But then we had a minor divergence on 9/29, followed by a wildly successful re-test on 10/12. That brought out the bulls for good.

Friday’s rally was a start. But so far, it’s only that – a START. If you want to wait for confirmation that this is “The Low” for this selloff, you’ll want to see what happens in the next few days.

Look for volume to lighten up on down days and an RSI divergence to show up. Then watch how investors handle the first pullback after a few days of rallying. With any luck and some patience, you’ll be on your way to trading a TRUE SPY bottom in no time.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Stocks are mixed in the early going, though investors are hoping we’ll see some green later after a strong rally Friday. Gold, silver, Treasuries, and the dollar are mostly flat, while oil is up a bit.

We just had another down week for the market, with the major indices probing new correction lows as recently as Thursday. That obviously keeps the intermediate-term evidence pointed down. Still, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) looks interesting for a trade, highlights Mike Cintolo, editor of Cabot Top Ten Trader.

Markets are rallying across the board on tamer-than-expected inflation data. Equities, Treasuries, gold, silver, and crude oil are all higher. The dollar is down.

Global markets are reacting to ongoing tariff disputes, persistent inflation, and shifting energy policies. These forces are driving volatility and creating unique trading opportunities. Join us for an in-depth look at how these economic dynamics are influencing short-term stock market movements and how savvy traders can capitalize on these trends using Leveraged & Inverse ETFs.

Cannabis revenues have never been higher, and valuation have never been lower. Join Todd Sullivan, President of Cannapreneur Partners, to find out why pension funds and even Berkshire Hathaway now have some new exposure to cannabis

Nearly five years ago, the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped the world in ways few could have imagined. Lockdowns, economic turmoil, and unprecedented government interventions sent shockwaves through financial markets, forcing investors and policymakers to navigate one of the most volatile economic periods in modern history.

Stocks have been sliding for days amid trade war fears, and yesterday was no exception. They’re flat in the early going today along with Treasuries and gold. The dollar is slipping, while Bitcoin is bouncing after a rough stretch of trading.

The S&P 500 just registered its second down week in a row after hitting an all-time high as recently as February 19. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields dropped five weeks in a row, which is even more telling, notes Ivan Martchev, investment strategist at Navellier & Associates.

Last Friday, I sat down with Freddy Gray at The Spectator’s office in Westminster to record an episode of the Americano podcast. We talked about the collapse of the EV market, Britain’s disastrous energy policies, energy humanism, and the tectonic political changes in the US and Europe on climate policy. These shifts clearly impact companies like BP Plc (BP), explains Robert Bryce, editor of Robert Bryce on Substack.

A little over a month ago as Donald Trump was about to take office as President, the 10-Year Treasury Note yield hit 4.80%. Almost every economist and strategist was writing and putting out that the 10-year would hit 5% due to inflation from tariffs. I disagreed – and I still do, writes Ryan Edwards, author at The Investing Authority.

As we know, Chinese stocks have seen a massive run of epic proportions over the past 30-40 days. The Hang Seng Index has soared almost 3,000 points in a non-stop run that I’ve seen only two-three times over the last four years. One of my most familiar names within my China coverage is Trip.com Group Ltd. (TCOM), writes Larry Cheung, founder of Letters from Larry.

It is kind of crazy that we’ve had one of the coldest weeks ever and yet we saw a big build in distillate inventories. Did everyone turn their heat off? Meanwhile, crude oil sold off earlier this week partly because of President Trump’s comments on the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, advises Phil Flynn, senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group.