In November 2023, Javier Milei was elected President of Argentina, running as a libertarian and securing a decisive victory. Initially, these policies led to economic turmoil. But Argentina soon experienced what’s known as a J-curve recovery. Could the US be on a similar path? asks Gav Blaxberg, CEO of Wolf Financial.
An economist by background, Milei campaigned on promises of aggressive economic reform, vowing to cut government spending and deregulate the economy. His first year in office was marked by sweeping changes. He slashed government expenditures, eliminated entire departments, and famously declared “afuera, afuera, afuera” as he cut bureaucracy.
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But short-term pain has since given way to rapid economic gains. Inflation has stalled and the Argentine stock market is up 98% over the past year.
This turnaround raises a fascinating question: Could the US be on a similar path under DOGE and President Trump? Elon Musk and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have described America’s current state as a “detox,” echoing the challenges Argentina faced early in Milei’s presidency. Like Milei, DOGE has prioritized cutting government spending and has floated the idea of eliminating certain departments.
Of course, the US economy is far larger and more complex than Argentina’s, but the similarities are striking. Milei and Musk have developed a strong relationship, and Argentina’s fiscal overhaul seems to have inspired elements of DOGE's economic approach.
If the US is indeed following a J-curve trajectory, today’s economic uncertainty may ultimately lead to a stronger, more resilient economy. Change is never easy, and economic restructuring comes with resistance. But history suggests that in moments of disruption, those who stay patient often benefit the most.
My advice? Focus on the positive and keep an optimistic outlook.
