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Many economists thought a recession had started in 2022 after GDP contracted in the first two quarters. When a recession didn't appear, economists said a recession would hit in the first half of 2023. For almost a year economists have been crying out Recession! Recession! Investors now think economists are just trying to fool them again and have decided worrying about a recession is a waste of time. What investors are overlooking is the decline in Gross Domestic Income in the fourth quarter and first quarter and the big drop in hours worked. The economy is set to slow markedly in the second half of 2023 and investors may not be positioned properly.
Jim Welsh
Macro Tides,
Macro and Technical Strategist
As a 40-year veteran, Jim Welsh provides expert monetary analysis and is one of the few strategists that have the experience, knowledge, and combination of skills to help you navigate the coming secular bear market in equities. The cornerstone of his tactical strategy is the intersection of economic fundamentals, monetary, and technical analysis. Mr. Welsh covers stocks, treasury bonds, dollar, and precious metals.
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