Pavel Molchanov photo

COMMODITIES, ENERGY

Pavel Molchanov

Investment Strategy Analyst,

Raymond James & Associates

About Pavel

Pavel Molchanov joined Raymond James’ Investment Strategy team in 2025, following 21 years (2003-2024) in equity research. His work in investment strategy focuses on the thematic areas of energy, climate, mining, and agriculture. During most of his time in Equity Research, he covered companies in renewable energy and clean technology. He has been recognized in the StarMine Top Analyst survey, the Forbes Blue Chip Analyst survey, and the Wall Street Journal Best on the Street survey. He graduated cum laude from Duke University in 2003 with a Bachelor of Science degree in economics, with high distinction. In the broader community, he is involved with the University of North Carolina, the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, and the American Geophysical Union.


Pavel's Videos

The global oil market has had a volatile year, with macroeconomic uncertainty (China, US, and European interest rates) competing with geopolitics (Russia/Ukraine, Iran/Israel) for investor attention. Meanwhile, natural gas continues to be a seasonally influenced commodity, with summertime heatwaves very much in the headlines. As it relates to the energy transition, we will discuss China’s role in the electric vehicle market, how the electric power industry is adapting to demand from the AI/data center boom, and how the US elections may affect the outlook for renewables. 

Energy stocks outperformed the broader market for the third consecutive year in 2023.  Join Pavel Molchanov to find out if the gains continue in 2024.  He will discuss how Russia/Ukraine and Mid-East geopolitics will influence oil prices, and to what extent will the high-interest rate environment affect the development of renewable energy projects.

Join Pavel for an oil market update: supply, demand, and geopolitical issues, the natural gas situation on both sides of the Atlantic, and energy transition: wind, solar, biofuels, and electric vehicles.


Oil prices approached their year-to-date lows in May. At a macro level, monetary tightening remains front and center in the headlines. Interest rate hikes around the world have the effect of dampening economic growth and thus oil demand. Meanwhile, oil market trading volumes are also at unusually low levels. In early April, the OPEC production cut provided a reminder that supply-side variables also need to be watched, even though the oil market's attention is firmly on the demand side of the equation. We are also monitoring the impact of sanctions and divestments on the Russian oil industry, as well as the outlook for capital spending industrywide. This discussion will also cover the latest in energy transition. What is happening with climate policy in China, Europe, and the U.S.? How are wind, solar, and other renewables scaling? What is the outlook for electric vehicle sales, and what is the read-through for oil demand?