Sideways-downward pressure may slow rallies in Gold and S&P500 futures, but the Euro and Crude Oil prepare for breakouts; The Euro may bounce in its directional range break from a narrow-range price, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
My continued soft opinion on market indices continues, although fall-holiday rallies often exist in the Fourth Quarter (Q4), despite bearish technical studies in some trading symbols.
The Euro breakout direction could be a bounce based on lower price bar positions within Bollinger Bands in multiple time frames. Crude Oil could break out or break down. Transportation strain due to hurricanes could increase crude oil demand, and central banks’ policies as well as geopolitical events can affect Crude Oil and the Euro’s pricing. Readers and traders should follow the news during this fiscal/financial quarter, as I anticipate news-driven price patterns.
Market volatility could increase near US elections and may be quick with fast recoveries. I’ve even had bad dreams that go from surreal to “almost cartoonish” involving one country making a pre-election show of maritime military might by unveiling their super-special submarine and other similar demonstrations of technology without tripping off NATO Articles, etc. Unexpected “reveal parties” by various militaries as in my bad dreams would create temporary market volatility if ever becoming reality, as well as could a US election process alone in a tight-race context.
My last article entitled, “(04/09/24) Euro Bounces; Euro & Crude Oil Do Range Breakouts (moneyshow.com)“ is essentially the same predictions that still stand, which is why I did not write a Q3 article. For the most recent article, seven of eight projected ranges were printed.
October-December Quarter (Q2) Predicted Ranges (Written October Eighth, 2024)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 6087-5921.38 Low Range 5575-5491
Bearish ranges derive from technical studies, trying not to be biased seeing markets this way into 2026! Only two of four indices during Regular Trading Hours made the new recent record-breaking, exuberant highs, and both opposing stories can’t at present be truthfully true, technically speaking.
Euro FX
High Range 1.132-1.105; Low Range 1.0923-1.074
I’m a temporary bull on the Euro very short-term on daily-intermediate charts near its breakout.
Gold
High Range $2843-$2759; Low Range $2582-2479
Under some downward pressure
Crude Oil
High Range $81.48-79.01; Low Range $67.80-64.26
Breakout tendency. $44 in the next two years is my longstanding prediction that I surrender/release if not printing before/in 2026.
Prior Predicted Ranges Apr-June (Q2) (Written April Second, 2024)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 5371-5336.38 Low Range 5175-5091
Actual: $5,588-4,963
Bearish ranges derive from technical studies, trying not to be biased seeing markets this way into 2026!
Euro FX
High Range 1.12-1.085; Low Range 1.073-1.064
Actual: 1.092-1.062
Euro is on a Moving Average, so I can’t imagine any bounce here, but I’m overall in general a bear market fan into 2026. I’m a temporary bull on the Euro very short-term on daily charts before its breakout.
Gold
High Range $2340-$2305; Low Range $2221-2149
Actual: $2,454-2,249
Crude Oil
High Range $89.80-87.01; Low Range $77.20-73.60
Actual: $87.67-72.48
Bullish tendency. $44 in the next two years is my longstanding prediction that I surrender/release if not printing before/in 2026.
The bullish tendency on moving-average supports. $44 in the next two years is my longstanding prediction that I surrender/release if not printing before/in 2026.
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
