While overall bearish, short-term, Crude Oil sets up for a bounce trade in 2024’s first Quarter, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
My continued bearish opinion is now expanding into a multiyear (2024-2026) downside trade technical position unless the charts’ studies start changing dramatically the other way. Only two of the four US Indices made the new, celebratory highs during regular trading hours’ data, while the other two struggled- one clue/cue as to what may be next, before considering negative understudy divergences showing lower highs against prices’ higher highs, thereby invalidating higher highs’ legitimacy.
As an outlier exception to the new market bullish highs, Crude Oil rests sideways on the 50-month moving average support with a weekly-chart wave pattern in development at what may be a second-bottom-out or wave-two buy point ahead of a wave three up move—traders should do their own research on this and don’t trade with amounts of money beyond what you can discard!
My last article entitled, “Reverse Bullishness Near a Swing Top (moneyshow.com) “ continues to play out in two indices, then more price drops as my continued, estimated “Three-Year” prediction/opinion. As of January first, 2024, seven of eight projected ranges printed.
January-March First Quarter (Q1) Predicted Ranges (Written January First, 2024)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4947-4873 Low Range 4548-4455
Bullish ranges derive from the 20-day moving average and monthly floor pivot supports before bearish attempts may resume in choppy ways that don’t preclude higher highs but can carry bearishness into 2026! Only two of four indices made the new record-breaking, exuberant highs, and both opposing stories can’t at present be truthfully true, technically speaking.
Euro FX
High Range 1.118-1.099; Low Range 1.056-1.041
Euro is on a 20-day Moving Average, so I can’t imagine no bounce here, but I’m overall in general a bear market fan into 2026. I’m a temporary bull on the Euro very short-term on daily charts.
Gold
High Range $2165-$2091; Low Range $2024-1974
Crude Oil
High Range $87.80-80.20; Low Range $69.20-62.00
Bullish tendency on moving-average supports. $44 in the next two years is my longstanding prediction that I surrender/release if not printing before/in 2026.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written Early Oct. for October-November 2023)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4728-4635 Low Range 4280-4155
Bullish ranges before bearish attempts resume with lower targets expected to print, 4222, 44160. My statistical aggregate-average high (projected) is also the Monthly-chart top Bollinger Band line. Warning Note: coming into the December holidays, typically bullish, the option chain disagrees with my pure math, showing options buyers on a 40% probability range on the 4325 strikes, so readers can adjust upwards my projected range if feeling a little Santa-optimistic!
Actual: 4841-4142
Euro FX
High Range 1.118-1.099; Low Range 1.056-1.041
Euro is on an 80-week Moving Average and a Monthly Floor Pivot, so I can’t imagine any bounce here, 9/26-29. I’m a temporary bull on the Euro short-term. Adjust projected range down if on countertrend.
Actual: 1.117-1.048
Gold
High Range $2016-$1978; Low Range $1934-1874
Actual: $2,152-1,853
Crude Oil
High Range $98.25-93.80; Low Range $81.03-72.73
Mixed directions in narrow range breakout setup; research straddles/strangles, spreads. $44/Barrel, eventually for a third year of four; then, I surrender the unfulfilled $44.
Actual: $91.88-67.71
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
