Reverse Bullishness Near a Swing Top

Short-term, my inverted “V”-top reversal predictions happened, as did “additional waves down”, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.

My continued bearish opinion is now about targets below near a confluence of the 200-day Moving Average and a Monthly Floor Pivot near ES 4222, and 4160, a confluence of the weekly 50-, and monthly 20-period Moving Averages. It’s near a time that a bounce may occur toward 4500 again, before dropping.

My last article entitled, “Reverse Bullishness Near a Swing Top (moneyshow.com)“continues to play out/repeat itself with the same message—bounce near 4500, then more price drops as a prediction/opinion. As of September first, 2023, seven of eight projected ranges were printed.

October-December's Fourth Quarter (Q4) Predicted Ranges (Written September 25, 2023)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4728-4635 Low Range 4280-4155
Bullish ranges before bearish attempts resume with lower targets expected to print, 4222, 44160. My statistical aggregate-average high (projected) is also the Monthly-chart top Bollinger Band line. Warning Note: coming into the December holidays, typically bullish, the option chain disagrees with my pure math, showing options buyers on a 40% probability range on the 4325 strikes, so readers can adjust upwards my projected range if feeling a little Santa-optimistic!

Euro FX
High Range 1.118-1.099; Low Range 1.056-1.041
Euro is on an 80-week Moving Average and a Monthly Floor Pivot, so I can’t imagine any bounce here, 9/26-29. I’m a temporary bull on the Euro short-term. Adjust projected range down if on countertrend.

Gold
High Range $2016-$1978; Low Range $1934-1874     

Crude Oil
High Range $98.25-93.80; Low Range $81.03-72.73

Mixed directions in narrow range breakout setup; research straddles/strangles, spreads. $44/Barrel, eventually for a third year of four; then, I surrender the unfulfilled $44.

Prior Predicted Ranges (Written July13, 2023 for August)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4640-4601 Low Range 4395-4315
Quarterly/Yearly charts override trends toward 2023-2025 inter-year targets of 2950, and 2366. These targets came from Moving Averages closest to aggregate averages of pivot targets of a variety of pivot-math methods (targets were 2404, 3011, etc.).
Actual: 4634-4350

Euro FX
High Range 1.147-1.128; Low Range 1.106-1.078
Actual: 1.131-1.077

Gold
High Range $2003-$1971; Low Range $1934-1898 
Actual: $2022-1913 

Crude Oil
High Range $85.25-80.10; Low Range $72.28-67.27     
Actual: $84.89-73.84

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.