Short-term, my opinion (still) is an S&P futures wave up near 4417” (4500s now) that may join June’s additional waves down (Gold, Crude Oil), writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
My opinion is based on what’s now quadruple technical negative divergences indicating exhaustion near some high level (I thought 4400 in the ES (S&P futures), my opinion stands that markets seek a place to reverse downwards, likely with an inverted “V”-top reversal, meaning a sharp reversal, & 4 bear years.
My last article entitled, “Buy in May, Reverse Thereafter (moneyshow.com)“ continues to play out with my assessment being directionally correct- this time. I don’t know exactly when to expect Crude Oil to visit $44/barrel at some point, food riots in select geographic areas, and increasing applicability of human rights standards in mining operations whenever some unethical mining operations are discovered/improved. As of July first, 2023, four of eight projected ranges were printed.
July-August’s Predicted Ranges (Written July 13, 2023)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4640-4601 Low Range 4395-4315
Quarterly/Yearly charts override trends toward 2023-2025 inter-year targets of 2950, 2366. These targets came from Moving Averages closest to aggregate averages of pivot targets of a variety of pivot-math methods (targets were 2404, 3011, etc).
Euro FX
High Range 1.147-1.128; Low Range 1.106-1.078
Gold
High Range $2003-$1971; Low Range $1934-1898
Crude Oil
High Range $85.25-80.10; Low Range $72.28-67.27
Mixed directions in narrow range breakout setup; research straddles/strangles, spreads. $44/Barrel, eventually for a third year of four-five; then, I surrender the unfulfilled $44.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written June Fourth, 2023, for June)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4414-4368 Low Range 4225-4178
Actual: 4498-4262
Slightly-Bullish range; Quarterly/Yearly charts override trends toward 2023-2025 inter-year targets of 2950, 2366. These targets came from Moving Averages closest to aggregate averages of pivot targets of a variety of pivot-math methods (targets were 2404, 3011, etc).
Euro FX
High Range 1.095-1.086; Low Range 1.068-1.060
Actual: 1.106-1.073
Bullish ranges/technicals as possible early indicators of bearish summer world markets.
Gold
High Range $2021-$2002; Low Range $1957-1941
Actual: $2,000-1,900
Bearish range. Wide-range setup; Adjust upward if in disagreement.
Crude Oil
High Range $81.75-79.60; Low Range $72.94-71.27
Actual: $75.06-66.80
Mixed directions in narrow range breakout setup; research straddles/strangles, spreads. $44/Barrel, eventually for a third year of four-five; then, I surrender the unfulfilled $44.
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
