Did You Focus On the Bigger and Broader Picture?

What a solid close to the second quarter and the first half of the year, states Bill Baruch of BlueLineFutures.com.

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4488.25, up 52.50 on Friday and 99.25 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 15,337.00, up 236.75 on Friday and 278.75 on the week

E-mini S&P futures settled Friday at the highest level since April seventh, 2022. E-mini NQ futures are retesting the June 15 settlement, the highest since January 14, 2022. While many have taken an overly cautious and even bearish approach all year, we have done our best to keep our eyes on the bigger, broader picture. Going back to the Morning Express on November eighth, we said, “There have been 18 Midterm Elections since 1950; six and 12 months out, the S&P was higher every single time. In fact, after three months, the S&P was only negative once, in February 2003, following the 2002 Midterms the S&P was -7.8%. During such a tumultuous year (in 2022), if this does not get you excited, then we do not know what will.” Additionally, there have only been four times dating back to 1928 when the S&P was down for consecutive years. Some called 2023 different, saying it would be an anomaly and ‘here comes the big bad recession’. However, we pounded the table saying, “The stock market is a leading indicator.” Companies had lowered expectations so significantly to get ahead of recession fears that when you couple the landscape with a slowing pace of monetary tightening, we must “bring out the 2019 playbook” when the E-mini NQ futures gained 38%.

Despite strong overhead resistance, the momentum coming out of this two-week consolidation is undeniable. Still, we must see E-mini S&P futures clear major three-star resistance at 4488.25-4493.75 and 4498-4500 to secure a breakout. Similarly, resistance in E-mini NQ futures aligns at that high settlement at 15,337-15,374. We remain Bullish in Bias and expect buoyant tailwinds while price-action holds above first key support at 4471.25-4474.25. Furthermore, in the case of weakness, there is strong support detailed down to Thursday’s gap settlement and rare major four-star resistance at 4430.75-4435.75.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 4488.25-4493.75***, 4498-4500***, 4509**, 4536.50-4439.25***
Pivot: 4580.75
Support: 4471.25-4474.25**, 4465**, 4453.25-4455.50***, 4441.50-4444.75*, 4430.75-4435.75****, 4417.50-4418.75***, 4407.25-4409.75***

NQ (Sept)

Resistance: 15,337-15,374***, 15,475-15,500***
Pivot: 15,300
    
Support: 15,238-15,268***, 15,202-15,219**, 15,078-15,095**, 15,025-15,037***, 14,963-14,986**, 14,856-14,898****

Crude Oil (August)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 70.64, up 0.78 on Friday and 1.48 on the week

Crude Oil futures are hitting a one-and-a-half-week high to kick off the month, and as Saudi Arabia gears up to remove one mbd from global Oil output. Although it is terrific to see the bullish turn above $70, there are still tremendous headwinds, and we have major three-star resistance at 72.43-72.65, a pocket price action that has struggled to hold going back to May second. Previous resistance will now be support, and this week is setting up to be a constructive one as long as Crude Oil futures hold above major three-star support at 69.93-70.33.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 71.93**, 72.43-72.65***, 73.29-73.37**
Pivot: 70.60-70.73
Support: 69.93-70.33***, 69.35-69.53**, 68.93-69.03***, 66.96-67.29***

Gold (August) / Silver (September)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1929.4, up 11.5 on Friday and down 0.2 on the week
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.02, up 0.222 on Friday and up 0.471 on the week

Gold and Silver futures finally showed life in tandem and held it through settlement. Was this simply end-of-month and end-of-quarter positioning, or is there staying power? This starts with a slate of June Manufacturing data from SPGI at 8:45 am CT and the more closely watched ISM report at 9:00 am CT. Poor data will spark safe-haven demand, weakening the U.S. Dollar and rates. Given the significant damage in recent weeks, several waves of heavy supply will attempt to keep rallies in check. The first comes in at major three-star resistance in Gold at 1929.4-1931.5 and in Silver a bit overhead at 23.29-23.34.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1929.4-1931.5***, 1936.1**, 1940.3-1943.4**, 1949-1949.6***
Pivot: 1922
Support: 1915.4*, 1906.2-1911.6***, 1900.6-1902.3**

Silver (September)

Resistance: 23.11-23.15*, 23.29-23.34***, 23.43-23.49***
Pivot: 22.97
Support: 22.89-22.91***, 22.48-22.54***, 22.05-22.40****

Learn more about Bill Baruch at Blue Line Futures.