Buy in May, Reverse Thereafter

Short-term, my best opinion (still) is another S&P futures wave up near 4417 that precedes June’s additional waves down in several markets I track, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.

While merely an opinion based on technical negative divergences indicating exhaustion near 4400 in the ES (S&P futures), my opinion stands as a June prediction from May, “So, near here a bit higher is a logical place for another down wave…a bullish buy in May could give rise to a geopolitical conflict news-invoked or other news-stimulated bearish/pullback summer…Gold prepares for wide ranges; I believe it is directionally down, like the Euro, also a foreshadowing. Crude Oil sets up to pull markets higher as it bounces off its monthly pivot near here.”

I can add that the Euro is on major technical support levels for a tradeable bounce, and Gold is on a monthly-chart candlestick pattern sell signal for a three-month pullback, counterintuitive as that may seem.
My last article entitled, “Buy In May, Reverse Thereafter (moneyshow.com) “ continues to play out—I believe. My longstanding, unfulfilled predictions of Crude Oil at $44/barrel, food riots in select global locations, and a rare earth element mining operation somewhere terrestrial (not the asteroid mining experiments) becoming progressively “human rights” unethical all remain. As of June first, 2023, six of eight projected ranges were printed.

June’s Predicted Ranges (Written June Fourth, 2023)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4414-4368 Low Range 4225-4178
Slightly-Bullish range; Quarterly/Yearly charts override trends toward 2023-2025 inter-year targets of 2950, 2366. These targets came from Moving Averages closest to aggregate averages of pivot targets of a variety of pivot-math methods (targets were 2404, 3011, etc).

Euro FX
High Range 1.095-1.086; Low Range 1.068-1.060
Bullish ranges/technicals as a possible early indicator of bearish summer world markets.

Gold
High Range $2021-$2002; Low Range $1957-1941     
Bearish range. Wide-range setup; Adjust upward if in disagreement.

Crude Oil
High Range $81.75-79.60; Low Range $72.94-71.27
Mixed directions in narrow range breakout setup; research straddles/strangles, spreads. $44/Barrel, eventually for a third year of four-five; then, I surrender the unfulfilled $44.

Prior Predicted Ranges (Written April 27, 2023)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4404-4227 Low Range 4050-4039
Slightly-Bullish range; Quarterly/Yearly charts override trends toward 2023-2025 inter-year targets of 2950, 2366. These targets came from Moving Averages closest to aggregate averages of pivot targets of a variety of pivot-math methods (targets were 2404, 3011, etc).
Actual: 4297-4062

Euro FX
High Range 1.125-1.111; Low Range 1.093-1.080
Bearish ranges/technicals as a possible early indicator of summer world markets.
Actual: 1.112-1.064

Gold
High Range $2085-$2020; Low Range $1978-1946    
Bearish range. Wide-range setup; Adjust upward if in disagreement.
Actual: $2,084-1,939

Crude Oil
High Range $81.75-79.60; Low Range $72.94-71.27           
Mixed directions in narrow range breakout setup; research straddles/strangles, spreads. $44/Barrel, eventually for a third year of four-five; then, I surrender the unfulfilled $44.
Actual: $74.53-63.64

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.