Short-term, my best opinion is another small S&P futures wave up near 4417 precedes June’s additional waves down in several markets I track, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Bullish trades are starting to exhaust their energy at levels representing 50% points in down move setups, so near here a bit higher is a logical place for another down wave. So, a bullish buy in May could give rise to a geopolitical conflict news-invoked or other news-stimulated bearish/pullback summer.
Gold prepares for wide ranges; I believe it is directionally down, like the Euro, also a foreshadowing.
Crude Oil sets up to pull markets higher as it bounces off its monthly pivot near here.
My last article entitled, “March Trades Countertrend (moneyshow.com)“ accurately stated that we “have landed prices on technical support levels for brief pauses, and bounces”, thereby predicting a two-month rally. My Euro note that the “20-Month moving average 1.082 also pulls from above” immediately preceded three days where the price stopped right at it before collapsing and then breaking up/over 1.082! My unfulfilled predictions of Crude Oil at $44/barrel, food riots in select global locations, and a rare earth element mining operation somewhere terrestrial (not the asteroid mining experiments) becoming progressively “human rights” unethical all remain. As of April first, 2023, seven of ten projected ranges were printed.
May’s Predicted Ranges (Written April 27, 2023)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4404-4227 Low Range 4050-4039
Slightly-Bullish range; Quarterly/Yearly charts override trends toward 2023-2025 inter-year targets of 2950, 2366. These targets came from Moving Averages closest to aggregate averages of pivot targets of a variety of pivot-math methods (targets were 2404, 3011, etc).
Euro FX
High Range 1.125-1.111; Low Range 1.093-1.080
Bearish ranges/technicals as a possible early indicator of summer world markets.
Gold
High Range $2085-$2020; Low Range $1978-1946
Bearish range. Wide-range setup; Adjust upward if in disagreement.
Crude Oil
High Range $81.75-79.60; Low Range $72.94-71.27
Mixed directions in narrow range breakout setup; research straddles/strangles, spreads. $44/Barrel, eventually for a third year of four-five; then, I surrender the unfulfilled $44.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written March 12, 2023)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4048-3974 Low Range 3864-3825
Slightly-Bullish reversal range Quarterly/Yearly charts override trends toward 2023-2025 inter-year targets of 2950, 2366. These targets came from Moving Averages closest to aggregate averages of pivot targets of a variety of pivot-math methods (targets were 2404, 3011, etc). Moving averages were close to pivot averages.
Actual: 4142-3839
Bitcoin
High Range 23550-21480; Low Range 19500-18368
Bullish and bearish; (after this article, I am taking a break from Bitcoin predictions for a bit).
Actual: 29155-21110
Euro FX
High Range 1.089-1.080; Low Range 1.063-1.060
Bullish and bearish; gap fill on Daily chart to 1.063 area likely. 20-Month moving average of 1.082 also pulls from above.
Actual: 1.098-1.052
Gold
High Range $1899-$1882; Low Range $1848-1834
Bullish range. Adjust up if in disagreement.
Actual: 2014-1830
Crude Oil
High Range $79.95-78.21; Low Range $73.70-72.17
Mixed directions in narrow range breakout setup; research straddles/strangles, spreads. $44/Barrel, eventually for a third year of four-five; then, I surrender the $44.
Actual: 77.42-64.36
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
