Short-term, my best opinion is countertrend bounce trade signals will appear in most of the symbols I track, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Bearish trades have landed prices on technical support levels for brief pauses and bounces. I cannot guarantee outright reversals, because some short-side traders could reload, add to or even initiate bearish positions or temporary swing trades in the “rips” higher off these lows. Aggressive traders may still find a price place for a strangle/straddle for both crude oil sides in monthly/quarterly expirations.
My last article entitled, "February Swing Trade Bear Signals (moneyshow.com)" accurately predicted bearish market moves, including Bitcoin’s breakout, although the Crude Oil breakout trade still awaits in narrowing price ranges. My unfulfilled predictions of Crude Oil at $44/barrel, food riots in select global locations, and a rare earth element mining operation somewhere terrestrial (not the asteroid mining experiments) becoming progressively “human rights” unethical all remain. As of March 1, 2023, nine of ten projected ranges were printed.
February’s Predicted Ranges (Written March 12, 2023)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4048-3974 Low Range 3864-3825
Slightly-Bullish reversal range Quarterly/Yearly charts override trends toward 2023-2025 inter-year targets of 2950, 2366. These targets came from Moving Averages closest to aggregate averages of pivot targets of a variety of pivot-math methods (targets were 2404, 3011, etc). Moving averages were close to pivot averages.
Bitcoin
High Range 23550-21480; Low Range 19500-18368
Bullish and bearish (after this article, I am taking a break from Bitcoin predictions for a bit).
Euro FX
High Range 1.089-1.080; Low Range 1.063-1.060
Bullish and bearish; gap fill on Daily chart to 1.063 area likely. 20-Month moving average of 1.082 also pulls from above.
Gold
High Range $1899-$1882; Low Range $1848-1834
Bullish range. Adjust up if in disagreement.
Crude Oil
High Range $79.95-78.21; Low Range $73.70-72.17
Mixed directions in narrow range breakout setup; research straddles/strangles, spreads. $44/Barrel, eventually for a 3rd year of four-five; then, I surrender the $44.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written February Fifth, 2023)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3156-4118 Low Range 3988-3976
Slightly-Bearish range Quarterly/Yearly charts override trends toward 2023-2025 inter-year targets of 2950, 2366. These targets came from Moving Averages closest to aggregate averages of pivot targets of a variety of pivot-math methods (targets were 2404, 3011, etc). Moving averages were close to pivot averages.
Actual: 4188-3846
Bitcoin
High Range 25535-24500; Low Range 22100-19450
Bullish ranges then bearish; slightly bullish impression but with multi-month breakout wide range set up for either direction.
Actual: 25345-21380
Euro FX
High Range 1.093-1.089; Low Range 1.068-1.064
Bullish and bearish; after a bounce off the Two-Day 50-SMA, a drop could occur.
Actual: 1.082-1.052
Gold
High Range $1899-$1880; Low Range $1847-1821
Bearish range. Adjust up if in disagreement.
Actual: $1902-1810.80
Crude Oil
High Range $78.74-77.01; Low Range $73.20-72.37
Mixed up then down; $44/Barrel, eventually for a third year of four-five; then, I surrender the $44.
Actual: $80.94-72.25
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
