While in a short-term uptrend, quarterly/yearly charts show downtrend throwback probabilities from atop their respective Bollinger bands; the yearly chart’s 2022 candlestick closes bearish out-of-value on highs, and that closure indicates an ensuing bear market, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Charts are showing a countertrend bounce toward the 4059 Monthly Floor Pivot, within the origination of a bearish wave-three down move on Quarterly charts toward 2950, 2797 (500-week SMA), 2366. I want readers to scribble these #s on a napkin posted on the refrigerator, without my name on it in case I’m wrong, so nobody says, “well, Trevor said…” The periods of Fall 2023-Spring 2025 are bad-news times, in my opinion (a technical-based guess).
My last article entitled, “December: An Indicator to Closely Watch (moneyshow.com)“ predicted bullish market moves into New Year’s Eve that happened, but 2023 opened to make lower lows than late December—a bad sign for the year. As of Dec. 31, 2022, nine of ten projected ranges were printed.
January’s Predicted Ranges (Written January Fifth, 2022)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3960-3945 Low Range 3792-3776
Slightly-Bullish range toward 4059 (3954 if the market is really weak). Near-term price rallies may also pull back before quarterly/yearly charts override trends toward 2023-2025 inter-year targets of 2950, 2366. These targets came from Moving Averages closest to aggregate averages of pivot targets of a variety of pivot-math methods (targets were 2404, 3011, etc). Moving averages were close to pivot averages.
Bitcoin
High Range 17480-17182; Low Range 16425-16251
Bullish ranges; expecting wave three upside toward monthly pivot. Bearish setups also exist. Slightly bullish impression but with a multi-month breakout wide range set up for either direction.
Euro FX
High Range 1.081-1.065; Low Range 1.053-1.041
Bullish and bearish; after a bounce off the two-Day 20-SMA, a drop could occur.
Gold
High Range $1895-$1865; Low Range $1835-1821
Bullish range.
Crude Oil
High Range $84-77.20; Low Range $72.50-70.37Mixed up then down; $44/Barrel, eventually for a third year of four-five; then, I surrender the $44.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written December Second, 2022)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4205-4139 Low Range 4023-3950
Slightly-Bullish range. Near-term price pullbacks before the monthly chart rallies into New Year’s Eve with 2023 being a yearly-chart trader’s stops run higher on the two-year short trade that late 2023 introduces bearishness for a harsh next two years. Near-term, price could get sandwiched between 20-week and 200-week moving average levels (which is what happened later or now, 12/2/22); option chains are more bullish on the low side than my numbers showing a gentler 4050 pullback level at 41% probability.
Actual: 4180-3788
Bitcoin
High Range 17840-17460; Low Range 16477-16250
Bullish ranges; expecting wave three upside toward a monthly pivot.
Actual: 18420-16090
Euro FX
High Range 1.074-1.062; Low Range 1.044-1.023
Neutral-bearish; after a pullback off a moving-average deflection overhead, but it could rally into 2023; options chains indicate the options markets are not as bearish for December, with a Delta .41 of 1.050 strike price, whereas I believe it goes under 1.044. Rationale: daily-chart divergence in triple-Fisher understudies printing lower highs against trading prices’ higher highs, invalidating the pricing.
Actual: 1.076-1.040
Gold
High Range $1845-$1826; Low Range $1785-1760
Bullish range. Read about commodity supercycles and mining. $1,758 Aug. monthly pivot support. On temp swing lows then down two years towards a $1440 bear target
Actual: $1871-1782
Crude Oil
High Range $87.97-85.56; Low Range $77.50-85.97
Mixed up then down, an unfulfilled dream state premonition of the $56 pullback traded. Clarification: two years ago, $44 was the premonition’s price in red magic marker on a plexiglass sign over a barrel in a sterile white/blue processing room where I was told this is a fair-value price in the future; I considered it fulfilled at the nearby $56 level, but it isn’t, so to derive my $44/barrel 2024-2025 pricing from current charts two years later, a chartist takes ½ the length of the yearly charts inverted hammer tail at $30, subtracts from the $73 low, then the $44 level is the next inter-year price target. We invert the inverted hammer, asking if the price can merely go down 50% of the candle’s tail length. $44/Barrel, I say, for a third year of four-five.
Actual: $83.34-70.08
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
