(12/05/22) December: An Indicator to Closely Watch

Watch December closely as it determines how the yearly chart’s candlestick closes, and that closure may indicate the nature, timing, and severity of the ensuing bear market, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.

While higher time frame charts are showing a countertrend bounce within the origination of a bearish down move, it is the bearish candle on the yearly chart, especially of NASDAQ’s futures that has me concerned for the time periods of Fall 2023-2025, should the wave patterns fulfill/build out normally.

I’m also watching rangebound rare-earth minerals pricing, like those found in Ukraine, for breakouts that could be related-sector laggards in comparison to the recent gold rally- or may not occur at all. Also, my $44/barrel 2024-2025 Crude Oil price is unfulfilled (see below).

My last article entitled, “A Gold Reversal Buy Point?“ predicted bullish markets off Gold lows, and the 180-dollar/oz. price move as an approximate $18,000.00 trade after a stops run lower. I’m not always right like this- see Bitcoin below that fulfilled my bullish breakout prediction but broke down in a way I did not foresee. Do not place much financial faith in this brain-injured dude with a worn, handheld calculator. My writings render no advice; I’m a registered CTA licensed for newsletters only. As of Dec. second, 2022, all ten projected ranges printed.

December’s Predicted Ranges (Written December Second, 2022)

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 4205-4139 Low Range 4023-3950

Slightly-Bullish range. Near-term price pullbacks before the Monthly chart rallies into New Year’s Eve with 2023 being a yearly-chart trader’s stops run higher on the two-year short trade that late 2023 introduces bearishness for a harsh next two years. Near-term, the price could get sandwiched between 20-week and 200-week moving average levels (which is what happened later or now, 12/2/22); Option chains are more bullish on the low side than my numbers showing a gentler 4050 pullback level at 41% probability.

Bitcoin

High Range 17840-17460; Low Range 16477-16250

Bullish ranges; expecting wave three upside toward the monthly pivot

Euro FX

High Range 1.074-1.062; Low Range 1.044-1.023

Neutral-bearish; after a pullback off a moving-average deflection overhead, but it could rally into 2023; options chains indicate the options markets are not as bearish for December as I, with a Delta .41 of 1.050 strike price, whereas I believe it goes under 1.044. Rationale: daily-chart divergence in triple-Fisher understudies printing lower highs against trading prices’ higher highs, invalidating the pricing.

Gold

High Range $1845-$1826; Low Range $1785-1760

Bullish range. Read about commodity supercycles and mining. $1,758 Aug. monthly pivot support. On temp swing lows then down two years towards a $1440 bear target.

Crude Oil

High Range $87.97-85.56; Low Range $77.50-85.97

Mixed up then down, an unfulfilled dream state premonition of the $56 pullback traded. Clarification: two years ago, $44 was the premonition’s price in red magic marker on a plexiglass sign over a barrel in a sterile white/blue processing room where I was told this is a fair-value price in the future; I considered it fulfilled at the nearby $56 level, but it really isn’t, so to derive my $44/barrel 2024-2025 pricing from current charts two years later, a chartist takes half the length of the yearly charts inverted hammer tail at $30, subtracts from the $73 low, then the $44 level is the next inter-year price target. Basically, we invert the inverted hammer, asking if the price can merely go down 50% of the candle’s tail length. $44/Barrel, I say, for the third year of four-five.

Prior Predicted Ranges (Written October 28, 2022)

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3910-3880 Low Range 3760-3735

Bullish range. Near-term price pullbacks before the Monthly chart rallies into New Year’s Eve with 2023 being a yearly-chart trader’s stops run higher on the two-year short trade that late 2023 introduces bearishness for a harsh next two years. Near-term, the price could get sandwiched between 20-week and 200-week moving average levels.
Actual: 4110-3704

Bitcoin

High Range 21750-21151; Low Range 19700-19413

Bullish ranges; breakout short-term rally.

Actual: 21400-14925

Euro FX

High Range 1.019-1.011; Low Range .9995-.9700

Neutral-bullish; after a pullback off a moving-average deflection overhead, it could rally into 2023.

Actual: 1.055-.9760

Gold

High Range $1711-$1692; Low Range $1657-1641

Bullish range. Read about commodity supercycles and mining. $1,758 Aug. monthly pivot support. On temp swing lows then down two years.

Actual: $1818.70-$1618