Food security, supply, distribution, and storage emerge as popular topics, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Traders may still be in the food commodity long trades I proposed months ago when I first wrote about future food insecurity and possible food riots. One of my four academic degrees is a Food Technology B. Sci. I’ll not make this a microbiology class, but food supply limitations increase food storage quality importance due to mold growth risks; stored grains can become contaminated with aflatoxin-producing, health-reducing fungi such as Aspergillus and Penicillium species, especially when severe storms cause standing floodwater or storm runoff near grain storage facilities. New technologies/approaches are needed to preserve grains from limited harvests; some researched include cold plasma, microwaves, essential oils, and ozone, according to the USDA’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture in their “NIFA Research Supporting Safer Stored Grains” document addressing US corn, oats, sorghum, and barley supplies.
As stated in prior articles, I had, before this geopolitical military concatenation, premonitions of post-conflict food riots in select locations globally. Historically, riots have occurred over single items like butter, bread, or potatoes, but also because of overall food availability and/or costs. In fact, I chartered my nonprofit foundation with functional foods and supplements in mind as part of my planned interventions to assist food bank recipients in preventing nutrient deficiency diseases and as lightweight, shelf-stable “to-go” or evacuation-bag preparation items for clients I plan to serve.
Also, as a primitive survival skills instructor, I believe that foraging for food/edibles in the geographic area where one lives is essential. Again, traders could construct trades with the above information or with the idea that food banks will need enhanced security/patrols in the future.
Disclosure: I traded my own numbers selling Nadex binary options on March 22 to buy back on March 23, and daytraded S&P intraday lows on March 16, capturing some available profit before a losing short trade.
My last article, Bulls Outnumber Two Bears (moneyshow.com), described markets’ directional tendencies. ”Non-terrestrial event dates for potential bearish sentiment” were on/near March 15, 21, and 30—not 29. I wrote about having a “vague, strong sense of something about the Gold prices but can’t quantify it,” before it exceeded my projected lows. None of my anticipatory guesses about the conflict (change of technology and/or players, quiet phase/pause, leaders taking breaks from it) have occurred—yet.
Ten of ten projected ranges printed.
Next Two Weeks’ Predicted Range
E-mini S&P 500 (ES=F)
High Range 4701-4645; Low Range 4549-4521
Neutral-bearish ranges. Space weather and non-terrestrial event dates that include solar flares, some of which will merge into a “cannibal coronal mass ejection” wind stream of particles that may coincide with bearish sentiment.
Bitcoin (BTC)
High Range 49699-48813; Low Range 45962-45902
Neutral-bearish ranges; countertrade sees a monthly chart candle on the 80-month moving average.
Euro FX (EURUSD=X)
High Range 1.129-1.123; Low Range 1.108-1.100
Neutral ranges; 1.128 monthly pivot overhead not touched.
Gold (GC=F)
High Range $1963-$1945; Low Range $1920-1907
Neutral range. Bullish breakout setup short-term, but monthly inverted hammer candlestick is bearish.
Crude Oil (CL=F)
High Range $112.67-109.41; Low Range $100.10-95.94
Neutral-bearish ranges. $87.40 is 20-week moving average low target if monthly inverted hammer candle activates bearish traders. Yearly pivot: $40.19; $46 Fibonacci 50% level is possible—eventually.
Prior Predicted Ranges
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4301-4259; Low Range 4150-4101
Bullish range. Actual: 4631-4129
Bitcoin
High Range 43880-40460; Low Range 38500-36530
Neutral-Bullish ranges, then bearish.
Actual: 48475-37495
Euro FX
High Range 1.113-1.106 Low Range 1.096-1.089
Neutral-bullish ranges; 1.164 yearly pivot already printed.
Actual: 1.121-1.093
Gold
High Range $2010-$1994; Low Range $1941-1912
Neutral-bearish ranges after a bounce off daily 20-period moving average. It’s late at night as I write this, and I have some vague, strong sense of something about the Gold prices but can’t quantify it, so I will note its narrow range breakout setup and 1847 weekly low reversal pivot below my projected range.
Actual: $1994-$1893
Crude Oil
High Range $113.97-106.10; Low Range $94.80-91.55
Neutral-bearish ranges. Yearly pivot: $40.19; Monthly Pivot= $94, but $46 Fibonacci 50% level is possible—eventually.
Actual: $116.64-$93.53
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
