Bitcoin’s back in traders’ minds, as its narrow range on technical (moving average) supports should lead to big price moves; S&P Futures’ narrow range also supports breakouts, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Narrow ranges in Bitcoin contribute to its return to news venues and traders’ plans. My opinion continues to be bullish, although I’ve been wrong about this so far. S&P futures are also showing bullish technical conditions and candlestick patterns in the short term, but the monthly chart is so bearish that traders may want to trade small lots and/or wait until investors and position traders buy forthcoming buying opportunities in dip-buying of lows.
My last article, 2022’s Coming Wide Ranges: Bitcoin, Indices, stated essentially the same thing as this article in a sense that Bitcoin and S&P futures are the main story—I was bearish and correct about S&P futures’ directional tendencies, but am more bullish on the short term on indices this weekend because of candlestick patterns. Teucrium Commodity Trust Corn ETF (CORN) highlighted in recent articles has printed new recent highs while Service Corp International (SCI), the funeral home corporation, pulled back to technical supports (moving averages). So, option traders bullish on Spring corn pricing may exit winning trades, while March funeral bulls may scale into long positions at prices near here due to call-put volume ratios, but I have no idea if a brief, transient call-volume bump and moving average supports are enough reasons to enter a trade! My space weather dates for bearish sentiment were the dates that the downmove started and may end neat the month’s turn. As of January 15, 2022, eight of ten projected ranges printed.
Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written January 30, 2022)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4531-4485; Low Range 4350-4312
Bullish then bearish range with 4154 target as the most frequent answer I get; price has breached the monthly, quarterly pivots in weak form. Opinion unchanged: Q1-2 offer deeper pullback dip-buying opportunities. Space weather and non-terrestrial event dates for potential bearish sentiment are January 31, February 4, & 18.
Yearly Pivot: 4404
Bitcoin
High Range 41665-40052; Low Range 35240-32691
Neutral-Bullish ranges in a Bearish monthly chart; 20-month moving average supports bounces.
Euro FX
High Range 1.133-1.126; Low Range 1.106-1.103
Neutral-bullish ranges; 1.164 yearly pivot pulls from overhead.
Gold
High Range $1820-$1805; Low Range $1774-1765
Neutral-bullish ranges. Breakout setup. Quarterly chart is bearish, but shorter time frames are bullish.
Crude Oil
High Range $89.50-88.25; Low Range $84.60-82.15
Neutral ranges. Yearly pivot: $40.19; $54-$46; Fibonacci 50% level that quickly recovers is possible.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written January 14 for January 15-January 31, 2022)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4725-4695; Low Range 4628-4587
Bearish range; price has breached the monthly, quarterly pivots in weak form. Opinion unchanged: Q1-2 offer deeper pullback dip-buying opportunities. Space weather and non-terrestrial event dates for potential bearish sentiment are January 18, 20, & 28.
Yearly Pivot: 4404
Actual: 4671-4212
Bitcoin
High Range 47334-44700; Low Range 42300-41988
Neutral-Bullish ranges in a Bearish monthly chart; price has breached the yearly pivot in weak form. 62987, the quarterly pivot may pull from above as a bounce target.
Actual: 43545-32885
Euro FX
High Range 1.149-1.145; Low Range 1.140-1.136
Neutral ranges; 1.164 yearly pivot pulls from overhead.
Actual: 1.149-1.113
Gold
High Range $1845-$1830; Low Range $1804-1786
Neutral-bullish ranges. Breakout setup. Quarterly chart is bearish, but shorter time frames are bullish.
Actual: 1854-1780
Crude Oil
High Range $85.30-84.01; Low Range $80.60-78.15
Neutral-bearish ranges. Yearly pivot: $40.19; $54-$46; Fibonacci 50% level that quickly recovers is possible.
Actual: 88.84-81.58
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
