S&P Futures’ negative divergence and narrow range continue to develop the Q1-2 dip-buy setup hypothesis, as all other symbols prepare for breakouts, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Monthly chart understudies print lower highs in stark divergence from and against the S&P’s higher highs. A three-month consolidative “down-up-down” pattern would surprise many traders, create some panic selling, and give dip buyers a chance at some extended-rally accumulation. I can not guarantee this will occur in Q1-2, or at all. For the next two-week period, the indices’ narrow ranges prepare for wide-range pricing—my bearish opinion may as well be a guess but is based on overbought technical studies. Conversely, Bitcoin’s narrow-range breakout favors upside trades due to moving-average supports.
My last article, 2022 to Start Slowly in Soft Pricing (moneyshow.com), indicated most symbols I track are in bearish technical conditions—except the Euro which went up along with Crude Oil (about which I was directionally wrong), while the other symbols went down as expected. Teucrium Commodity Trust Corn ETF (CORN) and Service Corp International (SCI), the funeral home corporation pulled back, but I have no idea if either is a buy; both option chains’ volumes show bullish call-side skews for March-May 2022.
My repeated Fall 2020 predictions for a preventable “February 2021 war in an icy place” partially fulfilled in multiple locations, depending on one’s definition of “war”. The Ukraine (one of the Feb. 2021 icy places) is potentially starting to look like both a hybrid and conventional-style conflict; in which case I got the year wrong, February 2022, it’s still preventable. Van Eck’s Rare Earth ETF Trust’s (REMX) share price mentioned in Fall 2020 has recently printed a November 2021 $126/share high, which includes elements used in military applications, and appears technically exhausted. Bitcoin (BTC) went to my low targets last week as the Euro went to my high targets, each symbol exceeding them; it also predicted the market bearish sentiments on/near “January 2, 7, and 18 “. Some dates fell on weekends but were near/preceding the red-candle days near the two-week period’s 4572 low. As of January 15, 2021. Eight of ten projected ranges printed.
Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written January 15, 2022)
E-mini S&P 500High Range 4725-4695; Low Range 4628-4587
Bearish range; price has breached the monthly, quarterly pivots in weak form. Opinion unchanged: Q1-2 offer deeper pullback dip-buying opportunities. Space weather and non-terrestrial event dates for potential bearish sentiment are January 18, 20, &28. Yearly Pivot 4404
Bitcoin
High Range 47334-44700; Low Range 42300-41988
Neutral-Bullish ranges in a Bearish monthly chart; price has breached the yearly pivot in weak form. 62987, the quarterly pivot may pull from above as a bounce target.
Euro FX
High Range 1.149-1.145; Low Range 1.140-1.136
Neutral ranges; 1.164 yearly pivot pulls from overhead.
Gold
High Range $1845-$1830; Low Range $1804-1786
Neutral-bullish ranges. Breakout setup. Quarterly chart is bearish, but shorter time frames are bullish
Crude Oil
High Range $85.30-84.01; Low Range $80.60-78.15
Neutral-bearish ranges. Yearly pivot: $40.19; $54-$46 Fibonacci 50% level that quickly recovers is possible.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written December 30 for December 30-January 15, 2022)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4920-4809; Low Range 4750-4657
Neutral-bearish range; narrow-range breakout, narrow-pivots breakout, and my high/low ranges have ranges of >100 points each, so my best truth to convey is to expect a wide-range move on one side. Space weather and non-terrestrial event dates for potential bearish sentiment are January 2, 7, & 18. Yearly Floor Pivot: 3225; 2022 Yearly Pivot 4426 (tentatively as of December 30, 2021).
Actual: 4808.25-4572
Bitcoin
High Range 52315-49500; Low Range 44100-42188
Neutral-Bullish ranges in a Bearish monthly chart; higher time frames may invoke a drop: 40196-40106
Actual: 47,660-39,470
Euro FX
High Range 1.143-1.139; Low Range 1.132-1.126
Bullish ranges; 1.138 Monthly Pivot printed. 1.141 50-Day moving average pulls from overhead.
Actual: 1.149-1.128
Gold
High Range $1835-$1827; Low Range $1797-1785
Neutral-bullish ranges. Quarterly chart is bearish, but shorter-term time frames are limitedly bullish in options chain
Actual: $1,833-1,781
Crude Oil
High Range $80.56-78.36; Low Range $74.65-72.95
Neutral-bearish ranges in breakout conditions- unknown whether continued upside or downward dierction. Yearly pivot: $40.19; $54-$46 Fibonacci 50% level that quickly recovers is possible as a third-wave end target in Q1-2 or 2022.
Actual: $84.22-74.27
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
