The euro monthly-chart bounce may be the trade for bull-side traders; otherwise, bears exert sideways pressure, creating underneath opportunities for Q1-2 dip buys, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
To summarize, the euro has bullish monthly candlestick patterns/charts, and both corn and funerals may be bullish based on option chain data in contexts of overextended rally charts. Sideways-bearish trades may apply in the first four months of 2022 in equity indices, Bitcoin, gold (Q1 only), and crude as an opinion.
Higher time frame charts show room for all the markets I track, except the euro, which presents itself in the reverse setup, to come down or chop sideways in 2022’s Q1-2, based on Bollinger band candlestick positions, patterns, volume, and ranges. View weekly/monthly charts.
Additionally, long-term farm weather forecasts based on various aspects of 2021’s Q4 full-moon appearances indicate late-February severe storms that could bring flooding. My dreamstate images time it in early March involving MS, MO, KY, TN river levels as well as the IN Wabash Zone area, and may not relate to reality at all. Even if weather-wrong, one related trade could remain the same for other reasons. The Teucrium Commodity Trust Corn ETF (CORN) still shows heavy open interest in May corn call options at strike prices ($24/share) above recent swing highs. This is consistent with inflation hedging, inflation speculation trading, and possible expectations of flood damage of corn storage areas—in other words, fear—even if no actual corn is affected nor in low supply, the option chain indicates a breakout rally.
Bullish open-interest call volume is also going off for Service Corp International (SCI), a funeral home corporation for May that similarly dries up in the next option chain month, though the chart is so strong that I question momentum and how high it can really go. On SCI, I am pivotless without any chart numbers above $73.18/share with dyspnea (difficulty breathing over it), while traders are buying $80 strikes up there in parabolic no-man’s land! Are they hedgers or do they know something I don’t?
Traders are buying gold call options into April 2022, but the quarterly/yearly charts are in such bearish Bollinger Band price positions that I include its mention here in what writers refer to as a “text burial,” so that few would likely to see it.
My last article, Markets to Trade In Mixed Directions stated that crude oil “is a in a narrow range and will likely breakout in a wide range—my guess is it continues wave three up before reversing down into lows.” Then, crude did breakout higher forming a powerful second wave up (correction” I meant wave two up preceding wave three down), but I am not sure if a wave three down is possible; it also predicted the market bearish sentiments on/near “December 16,19” which were the red-candle days near the two-week period’s December 20 low. As of December 30, 2021, 9 of 10 projected ranges printed.
Next Two Weeks' Predicted Ranges (Written December 30, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4920-4809; Low Range 4750-4657
Neutral-bearish range; narrow-range breakout, narrow-pivots breakout, and my high/low ranges have ranges of >100 points each, so my best truth to convey is to expect a wide-range move on one side. Space weather and non-terrestrial event dates for potential bearish sentiment are January 2, 7, & 18. Yearly Floor Pivot: 3225; 2022 Yearly Pivot 4426 (tentatively as of December 30, 2021).
Bitcoin
High Range 52315-49500; Low Range 44100-42188
Neutral-bullish ranges in a bearish monthly chart; higher time frames may invoke a drop: 40196-40106.
Euro FX
High Range 1.143-1.139; Low Range 1.132-1.126
Bullish ranges; 1.138 Monthly Pivot printed. 1.141 50-day moving average pulls from overhead.
Gold
High Range $1835-$1827; Low Range $1797-1785
Neutral-bullish ranges. Quarterly chart is bearish, but shorter-term time frames are limitedly bullish in options chain.
Crude Oil
High Range $80.56-78.36; Low Range $74.65-72.95
Neutral-bearish ranges in breakout conditions—unknown whether continued upside or downward dierction. Yearly pivot: $40.19; $54-$46 Fibonacci 50% level that quickly recovers is possible as a third-wave end target in Q1-2 or 2022.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written December 15 for December 15-30, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4720-4671; Low Range 4615-4589
Neutral range; Might go up toward new highs before dropping back as a guess. Space weather and non-terrestrial event dates for potential bearish sentiment are December 16, 19. Yearly Floor Pivot: 3225;
Actual: 4799-4520
Bitcoin
High Range 52705-51500; Low Range 47250-44258
Neutral-Bullish ranges in breakout conditions in a Bearish monthly chart; higher time frames may invoke a rally: 60750 60132
Actual: 52200-45415
Euro FX
High Range 1.141-1.132; Low Range 1.123-1.119
Bullish ranges; 1.138 Monthly Pivot pulls from above.
Actual: : 1.138-1.124
Gold
High Range $1780-$1772; Low Range $1747-1740
Neutral-bullish ranges.
Actual: $1,821-1,753
Crude Oil
High Range $76.56-74.39; Low Range $70.21-68.59
Neutral ranges in coming breakout conditions. Yearly pivot: $40.19; $54-$46 Fibonacci 50% level that quickly recovers is possible as a third-wave end target in Q1-2 or 2022.
Actual: $77.44-66.12
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
