The euro, gold should bounce based on technical price positions, but S&P futures’ monthly chart shows more room to fall than rise, creating underneath opportunities for Q1-2 dip buys, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
My technical analysis–based opinion is that the battle for directions of the markets I track is between short-term and long-term traders in equity indices and crude oil. While I can’t determine crude oil’s trend direction, I can impart that it is a in a narrow range and will likely breakout in a wide range—my guess is it continues wave three up before reversing down into lows.
As a family nurse practitioner licensed in KY and TN, I am planning/gathering resources to donate on a trip to the recently-damaged tornado zones from my nonprofit foundation I created Friday afternoon before the storms arrived. My April 5, 2021 article entitled, Currencies Plan a Tradeable Countertrend Rally noted chances of minor “possible earthquakes related to two consecutive, intense hurricane and flooding seasons' forces (2021-predicted 2022) on tectonic plates from storm flooding weight,” and also stated, “Be weather-prepared (have a 'go bag' with a light, helmet, whistle, radio, food/water/wipes, first aid kit, workboots, hatchet, etc.) in 2021 starting now, according to meteorologists in the event of tornadoes, hurricanes, and flood events.”
My last article, Gold & Bitcoin Surprise Traders, highlighted “My best predictive guess is that Bitcoin maximally destroys the most market participants by making a false upthrust to its overhead pivots before collapsing,” that did occur exactly that way, but I had no way of knowing it. It also predicted the market bearish sentiments on/near “December 1-3, (6 but markets are closed on Saturday and Sunday night, futures could gap down) 9, and 11” which were the actual lows and/or red candle days with follow-through continuation. As of December 14, 2021. Seven of ten projected ranges printed with missed range numbers being very close (0.33 cents off in crude oil; 80 points off in Bitcoin).
Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written December 14, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500 (ES=F)
High Range 4720-4671; Low Range 4615-4589
Neutral range; Might go up toward new highs before dropping back as a guess.
Space weather and non-terrestrial event dates for potential bearish sentiment are: December 16, 19.
Yearly Floor Pivot: 3225;
Bitcoin (BTC)
High Range 52705-51500; Low Range 47250-44258
Neutral-Bullish ranges in breakout conditions in a Bearish monthly chart; higher time frames may invoke a rally: 60750 60132
Euro FX
High Range 1.141-1.132; Low Range 1.123-1.119
Bullish ranges; 1.138 Monthly Pivot pulls from above.
Gold
High Range $1780-$1772; Low Range $1747-1740
Neutral-bullish ranges.
Crude Oil
High Range $76.56-74.39; Low Range $70.21-68.59
Neutral ranges in coming breakout conditions.
Yearly pivot: $40.19; $54-$46 Fibonacci 50% level that quickly recovers is possible as a third-wave end target in Q1-2 or 2022.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written November 30 for November 30-December 15, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4744-4625; Low Range 4578-4562 (outlier: 4534 pivot-moving average cluster).
Neutral-bearish range; 4630 December Pivot above pulls; 4534 is both a monthly camarilla pivot and 50-day moving average. Space weather and non-terrestrial event dates for potential bearish sentiment are December 1-3, (6 but markets are closed on Sat & Sun night, futures could gap down), 9 and 11. Solar Cycle 25 is now in effect with some coronal hole solar wind approaching earth this week. Yearly Floor Pivot: 3225;
Actual: 4740-4492.
Bitcoin
High Range 62705-59750; Low Range 55525-51792
Neutral-Bearish ranges likely inaccurate under breakout conditions; Bearish monthly chart; these overhead pivots on higher time frames may invoke a rally: 60750 60132.
Actual: 59680-47216.
Euro FX
High Range 1.152-1.142; Low Range 1.128-1.122
Bullish ranges for prices under fair valuations by pivot math pulling from above. 1.153 50-Day moving average.
Actual: 1.138-1.122
Gold
High Range $1825-$1801; Low Range $1768-1758
Neutral ranges in narrow-range breakout conditions. Above range likely to be wrong/exceeded due to blowout-breakout setups in ranges, pivots, bullish seasonality, inflation news.
Actual: $1811-1762
Crude Oil
High Range $73.56-71.24; Low Range $66.12-64.09
Bearish ranges in bounce-before-another-downwave mode (wave three depending on wave counts). Yearly pivot: $40.19; $54-$46 Fibonacci 50% level that quickly recovers is possible as a third-wave end target.
Actual: $70.91-62.43
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
