We just experienced one of the quieter weeks for gold with all the distractions and headlines focusing on the "delta variant" and its potential negative impact on the reopening trade and small-cap stocks, states Phillip Streible of Blue Line Futures.
The Russell 2000 came under significant pressure along with crude oil on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a "V" shaped recovery that extend gains into the weekend. The significance is that volatility of specific asset classes will continue throughout the rest of the year due to the crowding of those risk-asset exposures. Essentially, everyone owns those same financial products, and when a new "narrative" takes hold, everyone collectively runs for the door. Remember, the markets take the elevator up and the window down.
Cutting out the narrative this week and focusing on the technicals of one of our high-conviction plays, we have been monitoring the constructive technical chart formation in the gold market. If we do see a "risk-off" appetite in the equities, it could give gold the spark it needs to punch a ticket through $1850/oz.
Gold continues to hold above key psychological support at $1800/oz while firmly above trendline support at $1775/oz. We are monitoring for another "breakout" above the downward sloping channel near the $1825-1835/oz pocket resistance. We suggested considering using FOUR Micro 10-oz December gold contracts per $25,000 and buying TWO at 1775 and TWO at 1685, with a stop at 1640. Doing such would ideally risk $3,600. We would look to a gold target of 2100/oz, which would allow for a profit of $14,800.
Learn more about Phillip Streible at Blue Line Futures.
