Food commodities' bearish candlestick charts create in-progress sell trades, reports Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Markets coast along on highs—indices, food commodities, and crude oil; some food symbols offer bear trade setups against monetary policymakers' inflation goals. Rice futures, with the potential to drag other food "softs" down with them, fell below their Monthly Pivot to rest on prior-month lows. Lean hogs and wheat futures' sell signals are best viewed on weekly-monthly time frames. Feeder cattle declined earlier last week, and corn futures are strong as biofuel and food.
Approaching a mathematic time pivot when crude oil might throw a sudden, news-sparked downthrust to $44/barrel off a monthly-chart bearish candlestick, readers can see my discussion below about a price projection.
My last article was able to observe "currencies" planning a "tradeable countertrend rally," from which I sincerely hope some readers enjoyed the abundant profits continuing today; it's always the trades I don't take! Also, the 14 small earthquakes in Texas last week were minor and not my expected magnitude/locations, although noteworthy. Geopolitical tensions and military buildups in icy places do continue to progress in the Ukraine, Arctic "High North," and Russia; many nations/entities now monitor the South China Sea "fishing" rights disputes, too. Eight of 10 projected ranges printed as of April 18, 2021.
Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written Monday Night, April 19, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4160-4145; Low Range 4074-4050
Bear-skewed range from 2-day chart. Monthly Pivot 3904, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225;
Japanese Yen
High Range 9340-9284; Low Range 9191-9177
Bullish ranges to extent I widened the high range a lot, because I don't know how far it can go. Option chains are no help by predicting narrow ranges in wide-range trends. As anticipated, the Monthly Pivot was hit again. Yearly pivot .009498 printed and may pull price from above.
Euro FX
High Range 1.215-1.205; Low Range 1.195-1.189
Neutral ranges with bullish continuation potential. Yearly pivot: 1.174 (now printed); traders traded toward 1.188 Monthly Pivot zone that printed.
Gold
High Range $1820-$1793; Low Range $1757-1438
Neutral ranges. Moving average support higher time frames causes higher prices.
Of note, the 20-, 50-week moving averages crossed over bearishly, so the short-term countertrend reverse trade signal is bullish until the bearish Quarterly chart assumes market control. I anticipate these price events, can't guarantee either. Expert wave traders/hedgers only on gold, unless willing to seek short trade until Fall 2021 with forceful stops runs against the trade until Q3,4 seasonality/religious/inflation gold buying. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed but may pull from above, while the 20-quarter moving average at $1,447 pulls from below.
Crude Oil
High Range $6486-6346; Low Range $6115-6018
Bearish range: An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the Yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to a downwards-revised $46 that quickly recovers is possible now near a revised May 25 into June Fibonacci-calculation autotarget/time pivot. No guarantees of accuracy/prices, as it seems too strong for my $44/barrel dream image in which price was written on plexiglass over a physical barrel then put right in my face; June-Oct. make more technical timing sense on the monthly chart for it. $46 is the 20-month moving average (not $44). The monthly bear candle has an $11.73 range which, when subtracted from its low yields a $45.50 target. A stops run lower usually ensues $44+change). Experts/hedgers only here short until Fall 2021 against bullish supports (see Gold above).
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written Sunday, April 4 for April 4-18, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4089-4063; Low Range 3972-3948
Range-expanding expectations bi-directionally. Weekly Pivot: 3998, Monthly Pivot 3904, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225;
Actual: 4183-4021
Japanese Yen
High Range 9152-9122; Low Range 9035-8990
Bullish ranges from 80-month moving average support in trending mathematic conditions. Traders can take trade signals toward 9145 Monthly Pivot. Yearly pivot .009498 printed and may pull price from above
Actual: 9212-9035
Euro FX
High Range 1.188-1.184; Low Range 1.175-1.166
Bullish ranges with bullish bounce off 50-week moving average and Yearly pivot: 1.174 (now printed); traders can take bullish signals toward 1.188 Monthly Pivot zone.
Actual: 1.200-1.175
Gold
High Range $1768-$1740; Low Range $1713-1691
Bullish ranges in trending-pivot character with soft high targets from 20-Month and 80-Week Moving Average supports.
Of note, the 20-, 50-week moving averages crossed over bearishly, so the short-term countertrend reverse trade signal is bullish until the bearish Quarterly chart assumes market control. I anticipate these price events, can't guarantee either. Expert wave traders/hedgers only on gold, unless willing to seek short trade until fall 2021 with forceful stops runs against the trade until Q3,4 seasonality/religious gold buying. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed but may pull from above, while the 20-quarter moving average at $1,447 pulls from below.
Actual: 1784-1721
Crude Oil
High Range $6485-6315; Low Range $5987-5833
Neutral range in trending pivot math; An attempt to reach the Yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp price thrust down to an upwards-revised $51, $46.14 that quickly recovers is possible near April 19, May 25 as Fibonacci-calculation autotargets from my programs. No guarantees of accuracy/prices, as it seems too strong for my $44 premonition and June-Oct. make more technical timing sense on the monthly chart. $46 is the 20-month moving average with many key levels between there/current price. Experts/hedgers only here short until fall 2021 against key bullish supports (see Gold above).
Actual: 6394-5763
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
