A wave of Crude buying on news that OPEC would release the individual production cut quotas quickly dissipated into Friday morning. Bill Baruch, president and founder of Blue Line Futures, previews E-mini S&P, Gold, Crude, Forex and today’s economic calendar.
E-mini S&P (March)
Thursday’s close: Settled at 2486.25, down 18.25.
Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks including S&P 500 (SPX) are under pressure again this morning as drama in Washington won’t allow a reprieve of sentiment. This week has been a worst-case scenario for investors after the Federal Reserve for all intents and purposes stayed the course and the U.S. government faces a shutdown in a matter of hours.
Adding to the wall of worry is the resignation of Defense Secretary Mattis who is seen as the glue within President Trump’s White House. News of the resignation hit the wire boards early Thursday evening, however, it was revealed that the development took place much earlier. Although it was not public knowledge, there is fair belief that this had a hand in Thursday’s last flush lower in markets.
Wednesday, the Senate approved a stop-gap spending bill to keep the government open until February, however, it did not include funding for border security. The House passed a new bill Thursday that does include funding for President Trump’s border wall. President Trump would sign off on this stop-gap that keeps the government open until February 8, but it must make its way through the Senate first, they convene at 12:00 noon EDT.
Also, in focus is a slew of data that starts with Durable Goods and final Q3 GDP at 8:30 am EDT. At 10:00 am EDT, PCE Index the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator is due along with Michigan Consumer data and the Personal Income and Spending components.
Technicals: Thursday was a stark reminder that this market is very tradable with a shorter time frame. Our strong support at ...
Crude Oil (February)
Thursday’s close: Settled at 45.88, down 2.29.
Fundamentals: A wave of buying on news that OPEC would release the individual production cut quotas quickly dissipated into this morning. Bill Baruch spoke with Bloomberg on Tuesday and discussed the significance of inventories at Cushing; data completely discredited the reason for a bounce last week with the EIA showing a build at Cushing of 1 mb rather than the draw of 800k barrels discussed by Genscape. Crude is in freefall and down about $6 on the week or nearly 12%. Today is quadruple witching and this could bring an event of sorts to Crude Oil given the growing popularity of the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO). Baker Hughes rig data is due at 1 pm EDT.
Technicals: Buyers are not taking any chances at this point and refuse to defend even crucial support levels such as our major three-star support at ...
Gold (February)
Thursday’s close: Settled at 1267.9, up 11.5.
Fundamentals: Gold is our only conviction, we have been unequivocally Bullish in Bias for months. The early read on data was a whiff; Core Durable Goods Orders came in at -0.3% when +0.3% was expected although last month was revised higher and the final Q3 GDP came in just below the 3.5% expected at 3.4%. We look to the PCE Index the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator along with Michigan Consumer data and Personal Income and Spending components. Bill Baruch joined CNBC’s Trading Nation Thursday to discuss what safe-havens to look to when equity markets are in turmoil; although he discussed the Treasury markets, this is closely correlated with Gold and supporting factor to our Bullish Bias in the metal.
Technicals: First key resistance at ...
