The only good thing to say about Friday’s market session is that it’s over. Stocks careened into the close, with the S&P 500 losing 6%. Many global equity markets plunged again overnight and this morning, sending US futures down, too. But markets are off their worst levels. Treasuries and the dollar are somewhat lower, while gold and silver are up. Crude oil is falling again.
It’s hard to overstate the magnitude of the recent decline. US markets have now shed $11 TRILLION in value since mid-January. The $6.6 trillion loss of value last Thursday and Friday alone was the worst two-day wipeout in US history. The S&P 500 is down 17% from its February high, while the Nasdaq Composite is in “bear market” territory (down 20%-plus).
S&P, Nasdaq, Dow (% Change Since Feb. 2025 Peak)
Data by YCharts
Despite the selloff, President Trump is digging in. He is both publicly and privately saying the chaos is necessary as part of the global trade rebalancing process, and many of his lieutenants said similar things on weekend television shows and social media. While flying back from a Florida golf trip, Trump said “I don’t want anything to go down. But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.” That lack of a shift in policy helped fuel even more declines in the last 24 hours.
Interest rates have been falling, though. Plus, markets are ratcheting up the pricing in of potential Federal reserve rate cuts. That is one reason markets attempted an early-hours rally today. Then again, that’s happening because economists and investors are increasingly worried that sliding consumer and business confidence, tariff-driven pricing pressures, and tightening credit conditions will push the economy into recession.
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