Stephen Leeb is a leading global resources expert and editor of Real World Investing. Here, he looks at two resources plays — both with growing operations on the African continent.
Africa, and in particular the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), has also been a thorn for a large number of miners. Glencore (GLNCY), a current recommendation, stands out.
Every time we think of selling, we hesitate after looking again at the value of its assets in the DRC — mostly copper and cobalt.
Based on relatively conservative estimates of reserves, these assets are worth in excess of $50 billion, which is more than the market cap of the company. This means the market is valuing the company’s trading operations and significant mining operations across many countries at less than zero.
The most likely buyer of these assets — at least the one country that could mine them without DRC interference — is, you won’t be surprised to know, China. It is a pretty good bet that Glencore’s name will be mentioned in the current U.S.-China trade negotiations.
Right now, despite all the controversy surrounding the stock, it is just too cheap to sell, especially given the possibility that a successful trade agreement might pave the way for China’s purchase of some exceptional assets.
Even the toughest political climates such as the DRC leaves potential for upside for a miner as long as management knows the ropes and is skilled in distributing the wealth for the benefit of shareholders and the government alike.
Such is the case with Randgold (GOLD), which is being acquired for stock by our favorite big-cap gold miner, Barrick Gold (ABX). The purchase will merge the financial resources and expert management of Barrick with arguably the strongest mine development team in the big-cap gold space.
Before John Thornton came aboard, Barrick was a bloated tilting giant with debt levels greater than yearly revenues. Thornton has transformed it into a sleek gold miner whose profits are operationally, as opposed to financially, levered to rising gold prices.
Mark Bristow, in his 23-year tenure as Randgold’s CEO, has created one of the world’s most dynamic gold companies, beginning with beachheads first in Western Africa and then in the DRC in Central Africa. The singular success of Randgold speaks to Bristow’s political deftness and uncanny sense of how to value deposits.
The merging of the two companies, resulting in a rare combination of strong growth and safety, should handsomely reward investors. Even before the Randgold purchase we considered Barrick a core gold holding. Now it is a notch above.
