Tip-for-tap tariff policy has economic uncertainty swelling – and the market retreating in a manner that some are already comparing to Covid-19 and 2020. This seems like a reasonable comparison...but now is not 2020. I believe many of the market’s current concerns could be alleviated, advises Jeff Hirsch, editor-in-chief of The Stock Trader’s Almanac.
It could even happen just as quickly as the problems arose, with more clarity and perhaps a slower pace. When (could the correction end) and where (a possible S&P 500 level) are two questions we would like to have answers to as the S&P 500 slips deeper into correction territory.
To gain some potential prospective on the when, we compiled some data on post-inaugural market performance. Aside from confirming the current market retreat has been tough, the table also showed us that this has not been the worst post-inaugural performance. Recent history shows 2009 and 2001 were even worse.
![[30 Trading Days Before and 100 Trading Days After Chart]](https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/dailyguru63818.jpg)
Transforming the data into a chart showing the 30 trading days before and the 100 trading days after the inauguration dates resulted in the chart here. Please note: There are an average of 21 trading days per month. In addition to the “All” line, we separated out past Republicans and past Democrats. Performance has been adjusted to set zero on Inauguration Day. Trump 2.0 is the current S&P 500 performance as of the March 13 close. The weak market performance by Republicans in the chart is consistent with post-election year performance by party found on page 28 of the 2025 Almanac.
Trump 2.0 does appear to be tracking the Republican line fairly closely, although the magnitude of this year’s S&P 500 decline is greater. Should the S&P 500 continue to track the historical Republican line, an initial low/bottom could occur in the second half of March – with a potential retest in sometime possibly in early April. Then the S&P 500 could begin to recover like it historically did under past Republican presidents.
