It’s been a few weeks since TC Energy Corp. (TRP) spun off its oil and liquids pipeline operations as a new company, South Bow Corp. (SOBO). We think there’s more outperformance ahead for both South Bow and post-spin TC Energy. And we continue to advise holding on to both stocks for the time being, observes Roger Conrad, editor of Conrad’s Utility Investor.
TC shareholders of record on Sept. 25 received 0.2 shares of South Bow for every one TRP previously owned. Executives at both companies have announced they intend to release Q3 results and declare dividends on Nov. 7. And they’ve pledged the combined payout will be “at least equal” to the TC’s pre-spin of 96 cents Canadian, which will be paid Oct. 31 to shareholders of record Sept. 27.
Data by YCharts
Our advice to TC shareholders pre-spin was to plan on holding onto both pieces of the company “for at least several months” after the spinoff. That’s paid off so far. TC shares were recently up around 7% since the spinoff was executed on Oct. 1, while South Bow shares were up more than twice that.
With a market capitalization of just $5.3 billion, South Bow is a relatively small player in the oil transportation business. But its Keystone XL pipeline system is arguably one of the most vital systems in North America.
That pretty much makes it an immediate takeover target. And the value could increase sharply next year if Republicans win control of the US government in next month’s election and revive the now-stalled Keystone northern leg.
If no takeover occurs, South Bow will face few real challenges to delivering on promised low-to-mid-single-digit-percentage dividend growth the next few years, fueled by incremental capacity increases and growing scarcity of North American transportation infrastructure. Debt is not an issue, either, with the company rated solidly investment grade and no meaningful bond maturities until 2027.
Recommended Action: Buy SOBO and TRP.
