Last Wednesday, ADP announced that 150,000 new private payroll jobs were created in June, but those jobs were not very broad-based. On Friday, the Labor Department announced that 206,000 payroll jobs were created in June, which was slightly higher than the economists’ consensus estimate of 190,000. The former is probably more accurate, counsels Louis Navellier, founder and chairman of Navellier & Associates.
ADP’s balanced jobs report, as usual, is probably closer to the truth than the more widely heralded Friday jobs report, which will likely be revised later on. ADP is based on actual payroll data, not sample surveys.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June from 4% in May (see chart below). The other big news was that there was a substantial downward revision of 57,000 payroll jobs for April (108,000 now, down from the 165,000 jobs first reported) and a 54,000 negative revision for May (218,000 jobs, down from the initial 272,000).
(Editor’s Note: Louis Navellier is speaking at the 2024 MoneyShow Masters Symposium Las Vegas, which runs Aug. 1-3. Click HERE to register)
This is caused by the Labor Department reporting initial job estimates too early in the month to be accurate. Also, about three quarters of June’s payroll growth was in government, healthcare, and social assistance, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Journal said: “These industries also made up roughly half of the new jobs in May and more than 90% in April.” In contrast, June’s total manufacturing jobs declined by 8,000, the biggest monthly drop since February.
The Labor Department also announced on Wednesday that jobless claims rose to 238,000 in the latest week, up from a revised 234,000 in the previous week. This was the ninth straight week that jobless claims have steadily risen. Continuing unemployment claims rose to 1.858 million in the latest week, up from a revised 1.832 million in the previous week, the highest rate since November 2021.
