I have been publicly providing market analysis for the last 13 years – and one of my first market prognostications was presented in the metals market. Now, I want to share my updated projections for gold and silver, notes Avi Gilburt, founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.
In late 2015, I was seeing signs that gold was bottoming, and outlined to my clients that we may come up a bit shy of the $1,000 downside target I had previously published. On Dec. 30, 2015, I penned the following message to those willing to listen:
"As we move into 2016, I believe there is a greater than 80% probability that we finally see a long-term bottom formed in the metals and miners and the long-term bull market resume. Those that followed our advice in 2011, and moved out of this market for the correction we expected, are now moving back into this market as we approach the long-term bottom.”
Last year, I attempted to get readers focused on the metals again, as I wrote several public articles during the last half of 2023 outlining my bullish expectations for them over the following year-plus. In fact, back in October 2023, this is what my SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) chart was projecting:
Then in February 2024, this is what we were showing:
As you can see, we have rallied to our target for wave iii, and have consolidated in wave iv, as expected over half a year ago.
In my prior articles, I also outlined my initial target of $2,428 for gold (which we did just exceed before this consolidation). Now, I am expecting that we will likely move up to the $2,700 region in gold for the next rally I expect to begin over the coming weeks.
However, I see much greater potential in silver at this time. Whereas gold has already seen its wave iii rally, silver has not. Therefore, I am expecting a major catch-up move in silver during 2024, which can even take us beyond the $40 mark in quite a rapid move.
Therefore, my main point is that I am now tracking a pattern which suggests that this pullback can complete in the near term, and set us up for the next phase of the rally I expect in the metals market. However, in the next phase, I am expecting silver to outperform gold.
