When Krispy Kreme (DNUT) came public last summer, a lot of the financial press remained stuck in the past, emphasizing accounting issues of yore, recalls Michael Brush, editor of Brush Up on Stocks — and a participant in The Interactive MoneyShow Virtual Expo on March 22-24. Register here for free.
But back in the reality of the present, Krispy Kreme marches on as a scandal-free, attractive company to own, under an entirely different management. Its growth plan is producing spectacular results.
The doughnut company posted a sizzling 19.6% fourth quarter revenue growth in late February, excluding the drag from a sluggish legacy business that is has now fully exited. Even incorporating that drag on growth, the company posted 13.8% revenue growth.
Krispy Kreme also turned profitable, reporting $4.3 million in net income compared to a loss of $24.8 million in the year ago quarter. The stock hardly responded, given the dour mood of investors. Take advantage of this oversight.
Continued insider buying
Indeed, one smart buyer is doing just that: CEO Michael Tattersfield. He bought $271,000 worth of stock at just under $14 in early March. In insider analysis, which I apply assiduously in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks, CEO purchases carry extra weight. His purchase suggests to me that you should be buying too.
Why is he buying? Big picture, Krispy Kreme is an iconic brand, it has a powerful growth model, and consumers have an ongoing love of sweets. The company describes its doughnut line as an “affordable indulgence,” particularly its original glazed doughnut which it says offers a “melt-in-your-mouth experience.” It also has a cookie line called Insomnia, developed in a college dorm room in 2003.
Krispy Kreme has its own doughnut shops. It has partnerships with big retailers. It has a rapidly growing e-Commerce and delivery business. In short, the company has a plausible roadmap for growth in my view. Here are the four main components.
2) Krispy Kreme will keep expanding into the third-party retail channel presence by increasing its partnerships with stores. Here, the company is expanding what it calls “points of access.” This includes easy to deploy display setups in grocery and convenience stores.
Not surprisingly, they’re positioned in high traffic areas, tempting shoppers who walk by. These displays “create a greater degree of impulse purchasing and ensure that Krispy Kreme remains top-of-mind,” says the company. No kidding.
The company increased points of access by 25% in the fourth quarter to over 10,000, building on a long history of success on this front. Krispy Kreme grew points of access by 45% during 2016 to 2020, to 8,275. Simply put, it will continue to build on this historical success. It has good momentum.
2) The company has a lot of opportunity to grow in China, Brazil, and parts of Western Europe. Not all U.S. products export well, but Krispy Kreme has a track record of successfully entering foreign markets in the Philippines, South Africa, Guatemala and Saudi Arabia. International sales grew 42% in the fourth quarter, and the company says it will open in at least three new countries in 2022 and expand its global footprint “for years to come."
3) Krispy Kreme has plenty of room to grow in several key U.S. markets where it is underrepresented, such as New York, Chicago, Boston and Minneapolis.
Other avenues of growth
The company also has room to grow its e-Commerce and delivery business, via “click and collect” and home delivery. It will continue to roll out its Branded Sweet Treat Line’s products. It already offers nine different shelf-stable packaged products, and it will continue to introduce more products linked to seasonal events, and big cultural events.
The bottom line: Krispy Kreme projects another year of double-digit revenue growth in 2022. That promises to produce sweet returns for investors who buy now. Meanwhile, you get paid a 1% yield, while you wait.
