Under normal market conditions or trading environment, the “Swissie” does tend to exhibit a seasonal pattern against the US dollar, writes Jeffrey Hirsch of The Stock Trader's Almanac.
One tendency is for a relatively predictable move in August. Traders may want to consider going long this seasonal best trade on or about August 8 and hold until on or about October 16.
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In the 38-year history of this trade, it has worked 27 years, for a success rate of 71.1%. This trade’s worst loss, in 2011, was the result of central bank intervention and could have been avoided through the use of a stop loss and/or monitoring the Swiss National Bank.
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The Swiss National Bank has intervened in the forex market before, so when bank officials say they will intervene again, it is a good idea to heed their warnings.
By Jeffrey Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief,The Stock Trader's Almanac
